The already strained Gaza cease-fire deal is set to expire on Saturday with still no word yet on whether Israel or Hamas will continue negotiating for a second phase to free the remaining hostages.
During the six-week truce, Hamas released 33 Israeli hostages along with five Thai nationals — in what mediators hoped would pave the way for permanent peace in Gaza after 15 months of intense war.
But both Israel and Hamas have accused the other of violating the terms of the deal repeatedly since January, with neither side agreeing to return to the table to settle the terms of phase two, which seeks to free the remaining living hostages in exchange for Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza.
Hanging in the balance are the fate of 28 Israeli hostages who are still believed to be alive in Gaza — including New Jersey native Edan Alexander.
The second phase is also supposed to settle who will govern post-war Gaza, with Israel refusing to allow Hamas to return to its rule of the Palestinian enclave — despite not backing another viable candidate.
The US and other mediators are now scrambling to try and save the cease-fire deal, or at least negotiate an extension of the first phase.
Will the fighting immediately restart?
The war in Gaza could reignite immediately on Sunday, March 2 — but a return to all out war could be avoided if Israel and Hamas agree to start negotiating before then.
The terms of the current cease-fire deal calls on both sides to keep their guns lowered as long as discussions are occurring over an extension or the next phase of the current agreement.
There was no such luck, however, during the last cease-fire deal in November 2023, where both sides immediately returned to war following the release of dozens of hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
What was supposed to happen next?
Under the terms of the original agreement, Israel and Hamas were set to negotiate the freedom of all remaining living hostages in Gaza in exchange for Israel’s complete withdrawal from the Palestinian enclave.
Hamas has said it was willing to release the hostages all in one batch, which is made up of male Israel Defense Forces soldiers.
The second phase also calls on both sides to lay the groundwork on who will rule Gaza, with Hamas unwilling to step down and Israel refusing to let the terror group continue to exist.
Do Hamas and Israel want to restart the war?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that Israel will resume the war in Gaza if Hamas does not voluntarily disarm itself and surrender its nearly 20-year rule.
The Israeli military has repeatedly mobilized its forces in and around Gaza after repeated near-breaks in the cease-fire agreement, with Hamas also issuing orders to its fighters to prepare in the event of war.
Hamas itself has avoided explicit calls for the war to resume as Gaza lies in the wake of mass destruction and an ongoing humanitarian crisis.
The group, however, has refuted any notion that it would surrender to Israel.
What does Trump want to happen?
President Trump has repeatedly called on Hamas to free all the hostages or else he would allow Israel to let “all hell break loose,” in the Palestinian enclave.
The president has repeatedly said he would have returned to war if he were in Israel’s shoes, but he is leaving the decision to Netanyahu’s government.
US Special envoy Steve Witkoff, who reportedly delayed his trip to the Middle East earlier this week due to negotiations over the Ukraine war, has said he is pushing for an extension on the first phase to keep the peace and get both sides negotiating on the next set of hostage releases.
How many hostages are still held by Hamas?
Hamas kidnapped 251 people during the Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack, with the terror group also holding two Israelis who walked into Gaza all alone in 2014 and 2015.
Many hostages have either been freed, rescued or have seen their bodies retrieved by the IDF, including three hostages who were accidentally shot and killed by the Israeli military.
Hamas also executed six hostages rather than allow Israeli troops to rescue them.
In addition to the 28 living hostages, there are believed to be the bodies of 31 others who were killed in Gaza.
What is the biggest hurdle toward getting to a truce?
The biggest hurdle towards progressing the cease-fire deal remains the terms of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and who will govern the enclave.
Despite international pressure, Israel has refused to back the Palestinian Authority as the next governing body of Gaza.
The West Bank authority governed Gaza before they were ousted by Hamas back in 2007.
Israeli officials have recently tried to tap Egypt to take on the role, with Cairo immediately rejecting the proposal and calling the idea “unacceptable.”
Netanyahu has also said Israel would never pull away from the Philadelphia Corridor near the Gaza-Egypt border despite Israeli negotiators agreeing to the term earlier this year.
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