Pac-12 expansion is on pause. The conference needs at least one more football school to meet certification requirements but is currently focused on securing a media rights agreement. Once that process ends — presumably, there will be a deal in place sometime this spring — commissioner Teresa Gould and her schools will return to the membership issue.
And then what?
The rebuilt Pac-12 could stay regional, doubling down on the resonance of its brand on the West Coast.
Or it could pursue a national strategy by targeting schools in the Eastern and Central Time Zones.
In other words: Attempt another raid of the American Conference.
If that’s the plan, the AAC will be ready — just as it was in September when the Pac-12 was rebuffed by Memphis, Tulane, South Florida and UTSA.
“I don’t know that I expected it from one conference or the other, but I expected it,” American commissioner Tim Pernetti said.
“Why? Historically, the AAC has been a breeding ground that has built strong programs. We’re always walking around with a target on our back.”
Pernetti’s comments came during a wide-ranging conversation on ‘Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast’, in which he discussed the AAC’s realignment strategy, the potential for private capital to enter college athletics, the future of the College Football Playoff and several other hot-button topics.
Pernetti has played both offense and defense in the realignment game. As Rutgers’ athletic director in the early 2010s, he led the school’s drive to join the Big Ten. And in September, he crafted a strategy to keep the AAC intact and ward off the Pac-12.
“It was a chaotic couple of weeks,” said Pernetti, whose tenure began June 1, 2024. “But as a commissioner, you have to make a really important decision at a time like that. … You can decide to do one of two things: You can go into full sales mode and talk about why you’re better and why the other guy’s no good. Or you can act more like a partner and a consultant, and that’s what we chose to do.”
Pernetti played defense by being proactive and understanding.
“Institutions vetting what’s out there to see what’s best for their school, that’s their job. I wasn’t upset about it,” he said. “What we did was we made sure to surround those four schools with experts and expertise so they could separate fact from fiction and make sure they were dealing with information that enabled them to make the decision.”
As is always the case with realignment, money drove the process.
While the AAC’s media rights agreement with ESPN pays an average of $7 million per school per year, the deal is believed to allocate above-average revenue shares to the longest-serving members — a group that includes Memphis, Tulane and USF. (Former AAC commissioner Mike Aresco structured the media deal, which extends into the 2030s.)
The exact splits within the AAC are not publicly known. But the Pac-12 seemingly would need to offer its targets $12 million annually (approximately) in order to provide a bump from their ACC distributions and offset the increase in travel costs.
“What everybody’s doing is they’re chasing more revenue and more resources,” Pernetti said. “Other stuff gets left to the wayside.
“Think about student-athletes now that are traveling across the country just to compete in conference competition. Is that the best-case scenario for the student-athlete experience? I don’t think it is, and don’t think I didn’t share that. When our schools asked me about expansion opportunities, I said to make sure you think about the student-athlete experience.”
In September, the Pac-12 could only provide financial projections — it had not yet entered into negotiations for a media rights deal that will take effect in the summer of 2026.
If the conference makes another run at the AAC schools this spring, it presumably would have a deal in place with network partners and could offer clarity on the valuation.
What’s the price point necessary to dislodge the AAC’s top schools?
If Memphis, Tulane and USF are currently clearing $10 million from their above-average distributions, would $12 million be enough to lure them into the Pac-12? Would $15 million be required?
And how would the schools cover their exit fees, which are believed to total approximately $25 million per school?
There are questions on the Pac-12’s side, as well, starting with this: Are Memphis, Tulane and USF worth the investment?
Any new members would need to pay for themselves and increase revenue for the eight members that will constitute the conference in the summer of 2026. Otherwise, why would they bother?
The AAC’s trio are quality programs at the Group of Five level.
But would they be value-adds for a conference that will already feature Boise State, San Diego State and two longtime Power Five schools, Washington State and Oregon State?
Pac-12 expansion likely is a few months from completion, and there are myriad unknowns — starting with the level of motivation to create a national footprint.
Whatever happens, Pernetti is ready.
“The unity of (the AAC) is actually a real thing right now,” he said. “But I’m not a fool, OK? I know as long as conferences are thinking about the future,” realignment will continue.
“This is like hurricane season. We had it in September, and it’s going to come back around. It’s inevitable, and you can’t predict when it’s going to hit. You just have to be prepared for it.”
*** The full interview with Pernetti on ‘Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast’ can be viewed here.
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